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Estate saves city to have many far
From;    Author:Stand originally

Drop considerably in house price after lasting near one year, the bad news of estate infected bank body to go up eventually. This is meant probably help city from estate already not far.

This year in August the middle ten days of a month, silver-colored inspect is met inspect bureau gave out the silver of 7 provinces city such as Xiang Andong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Ning Bo " the announcement that checks about developing pressure of loan of key area real-estate " . The bank checks a result to show, if house price drops 20% , individual room borrows fraction defective to will rise considerably; If house price drops,exceed 40% , individual room borrows fraction defective to will rise about 40% . And before this, although house price falls,a lot of banks think 35% , the room borrows fraction defective to still won't be broken through 2% .

However, house price falls the hypothesis of 35% , becoming reality. Last year on September 27, administrative layer publishs loan new politics, the provision increases to the 2nd flatlet head pay and loan interest rate, house price immediately and fall. Among them, the house price of Hua Na area is gotten drop, then all the way on north. Enter this year September, 10 thousand divisions of estate bibcock company and constant depreciate suddenly in Hua Dong greatly, drop amount to 3 into 5 the left and right sides, caused each district thereby return a house, break the care that offer.

In the pressure test in the past, the pressure scene that the bank assumes parts corresponding is estate price fall 10% , 20% with 30% , delicacy has a holiday to drop surely the 4 person that become above. And depreciate of late tide already was broken through original assume, the likelihood forms new variable to bank loan risk.

Come from the statistic of banking to make clear, in each loan remaining sum occupy in comparing, estate development loan is occupied about 7% , individual housing loan is occupied about 11% , aggregate achieve 18% . If this part borrows money,the bad Zhang of occurrence accident is led, criterion the asset quality of the commercial bank will inflict heavy losses on. Because be in China most the area that develop, real-estate loan quality may affect a bank the 4 asset risk standard that become above.

The systole of estate oneself, also be the main factor of quality of assets of bank of be a burden on. The data that national statistic bureau just publishs shows, investment of 1-8 month estate is added fast drop to 29.1% , relatively 1-7 month of 34.1% add fast drop apparently. This means “ the growth August is only 18.9% , and was July 37.5% . This and estate department because foreground is dim and lack capital and be in the time evidence photograph under severe pressure consistent ” , sun Mingchun of economist of advanced China of company of Lei Man's brother says.

Current, real-estate industry occupies the 1/4 that fixed assets invests, to economy growth has main effect. Nevertheless, data shows estate investment inflection point has been shown, will continue to glide. Area of “ estate new go into operation may see a top in 3 quarters, suffer this be a burden on, four quarters investment is added fast go situation your person is anxious, the industry is added related estate fast also have gliding hidden trouble; Look from macroscopical and main area, the near future appears to invert considerably hard ” , in Xing Zijiang says analyst of golden company macroscopical economy.
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